What Trump 2.0 Would Mean for Canada

While polls have shown for months that Donald Trump is the favorite to win the White House on November 5, Joe Biden is in even more trouble since his disastrous performance in last week’s presidential debate. Canadians have noticed, and while a majority of them would like to see Biden re-elected, the opposite scenario seems most likely at this stage. What Trump’s return to the White House would mean for Canada is not entirely clear, as the Republican often remains vague and deliberately unpredictable about what he would do in his second term. But we have some clues.

Given that the majority of Canadian exports are destined for the United States, and that the health of the Canadian economy is heavily dependent on access to the American market, Trump’s economic nationalism would remain Canada’s biggest challenge if he regained the presidency.

During his first term, Trump often claimed that trade with Canada was hurting American workers. He imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to protect these industries in the US, denounced Canada’s trade barriers as hurting Wisconsin farmers, and demanded the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico.

These negotiations led to the signing of the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), in which Canada had to make concessions, notably by granting American farmers better access to the Canadian market. Trump may well take advantage of the moment when the US, Canada and Mexico will have the opportunity to request revisions to the agreement (date set for July 1, 2026), to try to obtain new trade concessions from Canada to the benefit of American workers…