Israel – Hezbollah: A Step Towards War?

On Tuesday 17 September, several thousand beepers, a rudimentary communication device used by Hezbollah members to avoid Mossad surveillance, exploded simultaneously, in an operation clearly organised by Israel. The same thing happened a few hours later with walkie-talkies. In addition to the dozens of dead and thousands injured, including the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon and a large number of civilians, this attack was a real psychological affront for the Lebanese militia party, which lost considerable legitimacy as a result. What is Israel trying to achieve with this attack? Is Hezbollah’s back against the wall? Is the international community in a position to push for de-escalation? Didier Billion, IRIS Deputy Director in charge of the Middle East/North Africa Programme, takes stock of the situation.

The simultaneous explosion of several thousand beepers and then walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members, probably initiated by Israel, caused a real shock in Lebanon. How damaging is this attack to Hezbollah? How might it respond?

From the point of view of its conception and execution, the operation to sabotage Hezbollah’s beepers and walkie-talkies was wildly audacious and demonstrates the expertise of the Israeli intelligence services. Of course, as usual, they will not claim anything, but apart from Israel, it is hard to see who would have the interest and above all the capacity to organise such an operation, logistically carried out with mastery. Having said that, we must not give in to a technical analysis of the operation and define it for what it is, i.e. a campaign of mass political attacks aimed indiscriminately at civilians, militants or Hezbollah fighters, since the Israeli sponsors could not have known in advance who would be in possession of these beepers and other walkie-talkies when they exploded.

37 dead and more than 3,000 injured: for Hezbollah, this was an absolute disappointment and a humiliation that will go down as one of the turning points in its history. Until then, Hezbollah had been considered the most hierarchical and disciplined politico-military organisation in the Middle East, and even internationally. In the same vein, it had a reputation for being extremely compartmentalised and for having built up highly efficient intelligence and security services. Finally, he enjoyed an aura of incorruptibility. Although we cannot consider that these elements that made up its reputation have been destroyed, they do appear to be tainted, to say the least.

Hezbollah has clearly been infiltrated and some of its members have probably been turned by the Israeli services. This has shattered a myth and it appears that the organisation will need a great deal of time to regain the reputation it has enjoyed for several decades. The organisation, which presented itself as the most resolute and effective opponent of what it calls the ‘Zionist entity’, has suffered a major setback.

Last but not least, we cannot underestimate the fact that these events are a weakening factor for Hezbollah on the Lebanese political scene, where it has long been a central element. Its Lebanese adversaries will try to take advantage of the situation in a Lebanon on the brink of bankruptcy, where no single personality is rising to the challenges facing the country, preferring to play futile picrocholine games, while 100,000 people have been displaced in southern Lebanon and 600 killed.

What are Israel’s reasons for targeting Hezbollah in this way? Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has just announced that the country’s armed forces will be redirected towards the northern border. What is Israel’s strategy towards Lebanon?

Israeli officials explain that they want to relocate people from the north of the country – i.e. the border area with Lebanon – since 60,000 Israeli nationals have been forced to move south in recent months because of the incessant mutual firing. But Israeli officials are mistaking the consequences for the causes. In reality, the state of latent war that prevails on the Lebanese-Israeli border will persist as long as the bombing rages on in Gaza and a negotiated ceasefire is not imposed.

In fact, the main reason for the Israeli operation lies above all in the desire of Benyamin Netanyahu’s government to regionalise the conflict. For Netanyahu, this is a guarantee of regaining the full support of the Western powers, first and foremost the United States. For several months now, there have been more and more demands for a ceasefire – without any effective pressure being brought to bear on Israel, particularly in terms of arms deliveries – and relations between the said Western powers and Tel Aviv have become increasingly strained. For Benyamin Netanyahu, however, a major military attack on the State of Israel would immediately restore his unconditional support, which is ultimately his real guarantee of political survival.

So tactically, provoking Hezbollah into action remains the Israeli government’s policy. Hassan Nasrallah’s organisation is trapped from this point of view. If it fails to react to the event, it will discredit itself in the eyes of its fighters, the Lebanese and the forces of the ‘axis of resistance’. If it reacts strongly, it is perfectly aware that it would emerge considerably weakened from a conflict with Israel and that, moreover, Lebanon would pay a heavy price at a time when it is already bloodless. Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 19 September reveals the predicament in which his organisation finds itself. As usual, the rhetoric was fine, but the content was de facto rather hollow, despite his promises of ‘terrible punishment’ for Israel. His verbal threats are unlikely to frighten Israeli officials. For all that, we cannot rule out targeted operations by Hezbollah against Israeli interests in Israel itself, or around the world. However, it should be borne in mind that Hezbollah is currently disorganised and weakened, and its capacity for initiative is reduced.

At a time when open war between Hezbollah and Israel seems to be looming, and no resolution of the crisis with Gaza is on the agenda, is the Hebrew State in a strategic impasse? What about the ‘international community’, at a time when the UN General Assembly has just demanded Israel’s departure from the occupied Palestinian territories?

For the reasons given above, an open war between Israel and Israel is not the most likely outcome, but the strategic impasse is total for one simple reason: the stubborn refusal of Benyamin Netanyahu’s government to consider a political solution. The headlong rush and hard-line policy that he embodies is leading Israel into a total impasse and crystallising opposition from within. Everyone now understands that saving the lives of the hostages and obtaining their release is not the objective of the Tel Aviv government. As for the reaffirmation of its desire to eradicate Hamas, this is nonsense and it will not succeed. This impasse is exacerbated by the annexationist policy implemented in the West Bank, where radicalised settlers seem to have carte blanche to multiply their acts of violence, when it is not the Israeli army itself that is perpetrating violence in defiance of every elementary right. In the long term, this will contribute to the lasting isolation of Israel, particularly among the southern states.

The paralysis of the so-called ‘international community’ is particularly appalling. Although there are regular verbal condemnations, no real sanctions have been taken against the extreme right-wing Israeli government, which enjoys complete impunity. Apart from the horror of the situation in Gaza, it is in fact the architecture of the application of international law that is being called into question. It would appear that there is virtually no longer any organisation to regulate international political life, given that the UN seems to have become tetanised and reduced to a machine for producing communiqués. At the same time, the feeling of double standards is growing, particularly in the countries of the South, where the differences in treatment between the war in Ukraine and the war raging in Gaza are obvious. This situation cannot go on for long, tensions are so high. We are probably at a turning point in the course of international relations.

La paralysie de ladite « communauté internationale » est particulièrement atterrante. Les condamnations verbales sont certes régulières, mais aucune véritable sanction n’est prise contre le gouvernement d’extrême droite israélien qui jouit d’une complète impunité. Outre l’horreur de la situation à Gaza, c’est en réalité l’architecture de l’application du droit international qui est remise en cause. Il apparait qu’il n’existe quasiment plus d’organisation de régulation de la vie politique internationale, tant l’ONU semble être tétanisée et réduite à une machine à fabriquer des communiqués. Dans le même mouvement, le sentiment du deux poids – deux mesures se renforce, notamment au sein des États du Sud pour lesquels les différences de traitement entre la guerre en Ukraine et celle qui fait rage à Gaza sont patentes. Cette situation ne pourra perdurer longtemps tant les tensions sont fortes. Probablement sommes-nous à un tournant du cours des relations internationales.

Translated by Deepl.